Senegal’s domestic gas reserves will be primarily used to produce electricity. Authorities anticipate that domestic fuel infrastructure initiatives will come on-line between 2025 and 2026, supplied there isn’t any delay. The monetization of those important power resources is on the basis of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the global expertise group Wärtsilä conducted in-depth studies that analyse the financial influence of the various gas-to-power strategies out there to Senegal. Two very totally different technologies are competing to satisfy the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle fuel generators (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These studies have revealed very important system value variations between the two main gas-to-power technologies the nation is currently considering. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, gasoline engines are actually significantly better suited than mixed cycle gas turbines to harness power from Senegal’s new gas sources cost-effectively, the research reveals. Total cost differences between the 2 applied sciences may attain as a lot as 480 million USD till 2035 depending on scenarios.
Two competing and very completely different technologies
The state-of-the-art energy combine fashions developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised vitality eventualities to identify the fee optimal approach to ship new era capacity for a particular nation, shows that ICE and CCGT applied sciences current important value differences for the gas-to-power newbuild program operating to 2035.
Although these two technologies are equally confirmed and reliable, they’re very completely different when it comes to the profiles by which they’ll operate. CCGT is a expertise that has been developed for the interconnected European electrical energy markets, where it could perform at 90% load factor always. On the opposite hand, flexible ICE know-how can function efficiently in all working profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to another era applied sciences that may make up the country’s power combine.
In specific our examine reveals that when working in an electricity network of restricted size similar to Senegal’s 1GW nationwide grid, counting on CCGTs to considerably expand the network capacity would be extremely expensive in all potential scenarios.
Cost variations between the applied sciences are defined by a quantity of elements. First of all, scorching climates negatively impression the output of gasoline generators more than it does that of gas engines.
Secondly, due to Senegal’s anticipated entry to cheap domestic gasoline, the operating prices turn out to be less impactful than the investment prices. In เกจ์วัดแรงดันน้ำมันเครื่อง , because low fuel prices decrease operating prices, it’s financially sound for the country to rely on ICE power plants, which are inexpensive to build.
Technology modularity also performs a key position. Senegal is predicted to require an additional 60-80 MW of technology capacity annually to have the flexibility to meet the growing demand. This is far decrease than the capability of typical CCGTs plants which averages 300-400 MW that have to be inbuilt one go, leading to unnecessary expenditure. Engine power plants, on the other hand, are modular, which suggests they can be constructed exactly as and when the nation wants them, and further prolonged when required.
The numbers at play are vital. The model reveals that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT crops at the expense of ICE-gas, it will lead to as a lot as 240 million dollars of additional value for the system by 2035. The cost distinction between the applied sciences may even enhance to 350 million USD in favor of ICE expertise if Senegal additionally chooses to build new renewable power capability within the subsequent decade.
Risk-managing potential gasoline infrastructure delays
The improvement of fuel infrastructure is a complex and lengthy endeavour. Program delays are not uncommon, inflicting gas provide disruptions that may have a huge financial impact on the operation of CCGT plants.
Nigeria is aware of one thing about that. Only last 12 months, important gas provide issues have triggered shutdowns at a few of the country’s largest gas turbine energy vegetation. Because Gas turbines operate on a steady combustion process, they require a constant provide of gas and a secure dispatched load to generate consistent power output. If the supply is disrupted, shutdowns happen, putting a fantastic strain on the overall system. ICE-Gas crops then again, are designed to adjust their operational profile over time and enhance system flexibility. Because of their flexible working profile, they were capable of preserve a a lot higher degree of availability
The study took a deep dive to analyse the monetary influence of two years delay within the gasoline infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the country decides to invest into gasoline engines, the cost of fuel delay can be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would lead to a staggering 770 million dollars in additional price.
Whichever means you take a look at it, new ICE-Gas generation capacity will reduce the entire value of electricity in Senegal in all potential scenarios. If Senegal is to fulfill electrical energy demand development in a cost-optimal way, no less than 300 MW of recent ICE-Gas capacity will be required by 2026.
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